水力发电学报2023，Vol.42Issue(12)：96-107,12.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20231210
风险链视角下的工程进度风险分析方法研究
Study on engineering progress risk analysis methods under perspective of risk chain
周君 1唐艳娟 1张文嘉 1王海娟1
作者信息
- 1. 石河子大学 水利建筑工程学院,新疆 石河子 832000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the law of risk propagation and to identify the root cause of schedule uncertainty,a method of engineering schedule risk analysis is developed with the risk-driven principle as the basic idea,based on the risk chain theory and combined with the Bayesian Belief Networks and the Monte Carlo technology to qualitatively-quantitatively describe the risk evolution process.In this method,the correlation of risk factors,the multiple uncertainty states of risks,and the rationality setting of the simulation environment are considered.Engineering application shows that its maximum error of the simulated average total construction period is only 1.5%,compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method and the standard correlated schedule risk analysis model(CSRAM).Its sensitivity analysis function can be used to mine the key risk triggers at the project level and each activity level,a useful device for managers to formulate relief countermeasures scientifically.关键词
工程进度管理/风险链/进度风险分析/风险驱动/多重不确定性Key words
project progress management/risk chain/schedule risk analysis/risk-driven/multiple uncertainty分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周君,唐艳娟,张文嘉,王海娟..风险链视角下的工程进度风险分析方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2023,42(12):96-107,12.
