生态学报2023，Vol.43Issue(23)：9686-9698,13.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202205101305
气候变化对落叶松人工林在中国适生区分布的影响
Influence of climate change on distribution of suitable areas of Larix plantation in China
摘要
Abstract
Larix is one of the most important conifer species for afforestation in China.The distribution of its suitable areas is largely affected by meteorological and other environmental factors.Studying on changes of the distribution of suitable areas of Larix plantation under the background of climate change can provide technical guideline and scientific basis for the forestry management strategy on coping with climate change.In this study,Larix principis-rupprechtii,Larix kaempferi,Larix gmelinii,and Larix olgensis were selected.Based on 308 distribution records of Larix plantation and 22 environmental factors,the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was used to detect the main environmental factors restricting the distribution of Larix plantation,and to simulate and analyze the distribution of suitable areas of Larix plantation affected by climate change since 1931.The results showed that:(1)the accuracy of MaxEnt model appeared to perform in the level of"excellent",and the area under curve(AUC)values ranged from 0.92 to 0.977.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Larix plantation were the precipitation of wettest month,altitude,the mean temperature of wettest quarter,and the temperature seasonality.The cumulative contribution the main environmental factors was 73.8％.(2)Under the current climate conditions(1991-2020),the total suitable area of Larix plantation was 182.34×104km2,with an optimal area of 53.57 × 104km2,which accounts for 29.38％of the total suitable area.The optimal area distributed in Changbai Mountains,the Greater Khingan Mountains of northeast China,Yanshan Mountain,Xiaolong Mountains,Taihang Mountains,and"Qinling—Daba Mountain".(3)The areas of optimal area of Larix plantation were 28.33×104km2 during 1931-1960,33.10×104km2 during 1961-1990,and optimal area increased to 53.57×104km2 under the current climatic conditions.The suitable area of Larix plantation showed a tendency to move northward in the past 90 years.The distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii generally moved about 3° to the north and the suitable area has significantly increased.The suitable area of Larix kaempferi in eastern Liaoning moved northward,while the suitable area of Larix kaempferi in"Qinling-Daba Mountain"region did not shift significantly,but concentrated in the high-altitude area.The range of Larix olgensis suitable area moved 5° to the north,the suitable area firstly decreased and then increased,with the main area increasing in the northern part of Changbai Mountain.The potential distribution area of Larix gmelinii moved northward in general,and some suitable areas moved out of the northern boundary of China,this explains why the suitable area of Larix gmelinii in China decreased in recent years.关键词
气候变化/落叶松/适生区/人工林/最大熵模型Key words
climate change/Larix/suitable areas/plantation/MaxEnt model引用本文复制引用
刘阳,苗晨,王鹤松..气候变化对落叶松人工林在中国适生区分布的影响[J].生态学报,2023,43(23):9686-9698,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608103) （2020YFA0608103）
