生态学报2023，Vol.43Issue(23)：9938-9951,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202205161375
权衡生态保护与经济发展的土地利用多情景模拟
Land use multi-scenario simulation for balancing ecological protection and economic development
摘要
Abstract
From the perspective of land use,we made a comprehensive assessment on the importance and vulnerability of ecological functions in the Longmen Mountain transition zone.The Natural Breaks method was adopted to classify the calculated values of the importance and vulnerability of ecological functions.Then we referenced the designated ecological reserves,the area with comprehensively ecological assessment grade Ⅴ was classified as the land use restriction conversion area under the planning-controlling situation,and the area with comprehensive ecological assessment grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ was classified as the land use restriction conversion area under the ecological-protecting situation.The regulation of land use in the research area with natural-developing situation was remained as 2010 to 2015.Compared with the natural-developing situation,the conversion probability under the planning-controlling situation of the cultivated land to the construction land was reduced by 30％,the conversion probabilities under the planning-controlling situation of the forest land and the water area to the construction land was reduced by 20％,and the conversion probability of grassland to the construction land was reduced by 10％,and all reduced parts remained the same as the original land type.And in the ecological-protecting situation,the conversion probability of the cultivated land to construction land was reduced by 30％,and this part of cultivated land was converted to forest land.And the conversion probabilities of forest land and grassland to construction land were reduced by 50％,and this part of forest land and grassland were remained the same as the original land type.In the three different situations,the cultivated land,forest land,water area and unused land in the research area were reduced,especially the cultivated land,which was reduced by more than 300km2.Under the planning-controlling situation,the cultivated land was reduced less than other two situations.The grassland and construction land were expanded,and the construction land increased quickly in the natural-developing situation.Based on the multi-scenario land use simulation results,we extracted the land patches that needed to be weighed.The decision thresholds were classified as Grade Ⅴ,slope 25°,and local forest line elevation of 3500m.Multiple logical decisions were made in combination with the current land class,main function zoning and other factors,and the multi-scenario simulation results were integrated.The integrated scheme can not only protect the ecological environment well,but also take into account the economic development of the research area.关键词
土地利用变化/多情景模拟/未来土地利用变化情景模拟模型(FLUS)/龙门山Key words
land use and cover change/multi-scenario simulation/future land use simulation model/Longmen Mountain引用本文复制引用
王森,彭立..权衡生态保护与经济发展的土地利用多情景模拟[J].生态学报,2023,43(23):9938-9951,14.基金项目
四川省科技计划项目(2022JDJQ0015) （2022JDJQ0015）
国家自然科学基金项目(42071222) （42071222）
