现代医院2023，Vol.23Issue(12)：1861-1865,1870,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2023.12.015
浙江某三甲医院糖尿病患者次均住院费用及药占比时间序列预测分析
Time series prediction analysis of average hospitalization expenditure and drug proportion of diabetes patients in a grade-a tertiary hospital in Zhejiang province
摘要
Abstract
Objective This study conducted the ARIMA model to analyze the cost structure and trend of inpatients with diabetes in a grade-A tertiary hospital and provide scientific basis for effectively controlling diabetes hospitalization expenses and reduce patient's economic burden.Methods The data of 18 371 inpatients with diabetes from 2012 to 2022 in a grade-A tertiary hospital were collected.We collected inpatient data of diabetes from 2012 to 2021 to fit the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion,and used data 2022 to verify the effect of model prediction.We predicted the average inpatient expenses and drug proportion from 2023 to 2025.Results The difference between the predicted value and the actual value was small,and the mean absolute percentage error was within the acceptable range.ARIAM model could be used to predict the expenses of diabetes.Conclusion The average cost of hospitalization showed a decreasing trend,and"the five colors,one map,one index"manage-ment model has achieved results.The proportion of drugs decreased obviously,but the composition of hospitalization expenses should be further optimized.The research of expenses prediction based on diabetes needs to be depended.关键词
糖尿病/ARIMA模型/住院费用/费用预测Key words
Daibetes/ARIMA model/Hospitalization expenditure/Expenditure prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张自严,冯丹,王嘉年,吴雅芳,吴琼..浙江某三甲医院糖尿病患者次均住院费用及药占比时间序列预测分析[J].现代医院,2023,23(12):1861-1865,1870,6.基金项目
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202210541095) （202210541095）
湖南省卫生健康委员会项目(2021 Y06) （2021 Y06）
