沙漠与绿洲气象2023，Vol.17Issue(6)：32-40,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2023.06.005
季风转换对深圳地区呼吸系统疾病的影响及预测研究
Study of the Influence of Monsoon Change on Respiratory Patients and the Prediction Model in Shenzhen Area
摘要
Abstract
This paper used the data on the number of patients with respiratory disease、meteorological factors and pollutant concentration from 2015 to 2016 to construct a prediction model for the admission visits from respiratory disease by using BP artificial neural network and LSTM network.The results showed that the cold stress effect of winter monsoon would increase the incidence of respiratory diseases in related populations fluctuating from September to the peak of March before the transition from winter wind to summer wind in the following year.During the summer wind control period,the incidence of respiratory diseases among local residents fluctuated and decreased,which was 35%lower than that during the peak period.In addition,the main control factors of respiratory diseases were different.Compared with the two prediction models,on the whole,the LSTM network forecasting model has a higher accuracy rate in predicting the risk of respiratory diseases in Shenzhen,which can meet the business needs of health weather forecasting services.关键词
季风转换/呼吸系统疾病/气象与污染条件/人工神经网络/LSTM网络/预测模型Key words
monsoon transition/respiratory diseases/meteorological and pollution conditions/artificial neural network/LSTM network/prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴千鹏,尹立,李兴荣,孙羽,黄开龙,苏春芳,王式功..季风转换对深圳地区呼吸系统疾病的影响及预测研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2023,17(6):32-40,9.基金项目
攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目(2021ZX-5-1) （2021ZX-5-1）
2021年省级科技计划转移支付专项资金项目(21ZYZF-S-01) （21ZYZF-S-01）
中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202203) （XNQYCXTD-202203）
2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目(2021CY-S-4) （2021CY-S-4）
