沙漠与绿洲气象2023，Vol.17Issue(6)：50-59,10.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2023.06.007
不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡影响及趋利降风险效应研究
Effect of Urban Temperature in Different Climate Zones on Mortality from Respiratory Diseases and the Risk Reduction in the Elderly
摘要
Abstract
Based on the day-by-day mortality data and concurrent meteorological data from Yuanjiang,Chengdu,and Xi'an city,the effects of temperature on the risk of death from respiratory diseases in the elderly in three cities with different climatic zones were investigated by using generalized additive and distributional lagged nonlinear models,and then the health losses caused by respiratory diseases were quantified using attributable fractions(AFs)in the different temperature bands,and the effect of seasonal climate convergence among the three places was quantified.The mortality risk reduction effect was obtained from the seasonal climate convergence among the three cities.The results suggested that:(1)The relationship between temperature and deaths from respiratory diseases in the Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi'an cities showed a"W",inverse"J"and inverse"J"distribution,respectively.(2)The effect of temperature on deaths from respiratory diseases in the elderly in Yuanjiang was more prominent with high temperature immediacy,and for the elderly in Chengdu and Xi'an city,it was more pronounced with the laged low temperature.(3)The AFs caused by temperature in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi'an were 9.64%,11.25%and 18.26%,respectively,with the cold effect generating a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases.Further subdividing the temperatures into four temperature bands(extreme low temperature,moderate low temperature,moderate high temperature,and extreme high temperature),moderate low temperature caused the highest cumulative number of excess deaths,which was closely related to its high frequency of occurrence.(4)If the elderly in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi'an city have the willingness and conditions to take migratory birds seasonal climate tendency to avoid the summer heat or cold recreation,it might reduce the health risks arising from the local seasonal discomfort climate to a certain extent.关键词
气温/呼吸系统疾病/死亡风险/归因风险/超额死亡风险Key words
temperature/respiratory diseases/risk of death/attributable risk/excess risk of death分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陆美静,尹立,孙羽,王式功,胥春云,樊晋,瞿冲,邓徐慧..不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡影响及趋利降风险效应研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2023,17(6):50-59,10.基金项目
2021 年省级科技计划转移支付专项资金项目(21ZYZF-S-01) （21ZYZF-S-01）
攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目(2021ZX-5-1) （2021ZX-5-1）
四川省区域创新合作项目(2022YFQ0001) （2022YFQ0001）
中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202203) （XNQYCXTD-202203）
2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目(2021CY-S-4) （2021CY-S-4）
