沙漠与绿洲气象2023，Vol.17Issue(6)：83-88,6.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2023.06.011
新疆香梨花期霜冻灾害风险评估模型构建及适用性
Construction and Applicability of Frost Disaster Risk Assessment Model in Flower Period of Fragrant Pear in Xinjaing
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of frequent global warming and extreme climate events,people pay more attention to the disaster risk of agricultural and forestry production.It is of great significance to construct disaster early warning indicators,and carry out risk early warning and advance prevention for effective disaster prevention,mitigation and loss reduction.Based on the data of frost disaster situation,meteorological factors and planting area of fragrant pear from 1981 to 2020 in Xinjiang,the frost disaster risk index,exposure and vulnerability index were calculated,the frost disaster risk assessment model of flower period was comprehensively constructed,and the fragrant pear frost risk warning was conducted based on the grid forecast,verifying the applicability of the assessment model.The results show that the lowest temperature,process temperature range and low temperature duration are the main factors of frost disaster.The spatial distribution of frost risk in spring is generally high in the north and low in the south.The high risk areas of spring frost are mainly distributed in the western part of northern Xinjiang,the western and central regions of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains,the northern part of Bazhou,Aksu city and its southern parts,with high risk and loss of frost.Based on the meteorological situation and the orchard disaster survey results,it shows that the combination of the frost risk assessment model and the lattice forecast can better forecast the risk zoning and influence level of fragrant pear frost,which is basically consistent with the actual occurrence area and percentage of the frost disaster of fragrant pear.The frost index and risk warning model are reasonable and applicable.关键词
香梨/霜冻/致灾因子/风险评估/适用性Key words
fragrant pear/frost disaster/disaster-causing factor/risk assessment/applicability分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吉春容,火勋国,谷然,张山清,李迎春,张祖莲..新疆香梨花期霜冻灾害风险评估模型构建及适用性[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2023,17(6):83-88,6.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B02004) （2023B02004）
新疆气象科研项目(ZD2023002) （ZD2023002）
