沙漠与绿洲气象2023，Vol.17Issue(6)：111-118,8.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2023.06.015
基于RegCM4模式的华北区域未来洪涝灾害风险预估
Projection of Flood Risk over North China Based on RegCM4 Regional Climate Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the simulation results of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a 25 km resolution in East Asia,we established a regional disaster flood risk assessment model by analyzing climate disaster risk and vulnerability of population and GDP in north China during the base period(1986-2005).This model was utilized to predict changes in flood disaster risk for near-term(2020-2035),medium-term(2046-2065),and long-term(2080-2098)periods in north China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The findings indicate that:(1)RegCM4 demonstrates good simulation ability for assessing flood hazard indexes such as R20 mm and Rx5 day during the base period in north China.Flood hazard risks at level III or above were observed primarily in Beijing,Tianjin,southern and eastern Hebei,as well as southern Shanxi.(2)Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,there will be an increase in R20 mm and Rx5 day flood disaster risks across most areas of north China during the next three different time periods;this increase is more pronounced under the RCP8.5 scenario.Risk levels III or above are the highest during the medium term for both scenarios.关键词
风险预估/洪涝灾害/华北区域/RegCM4Key words
risk projection/flood disaster/north China/RegCM4分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘月丽,张冬峰,陈颖,安炜..基于RegCM4模式的华北区域未来洪涝灾害风险预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2023,17(6):111-118,8.基金项目
山西省气象局科学技术研究重点项目(SXKZDQH20226303) （SXKZDQH20226303）
