摘要
Abstract
In view of the high uncertainty,complex emergency decision-making scheme and high implementation cost of environmental emergencies,the authors in this research proposed a emergency decision method for regional environmental emergencies based on grid logistic regression model.The Delphi method is used to select the impact variables of regional environmental emergencies,and a probability calculation model of regional environmental e-mergencies based on logistic regression model is constructed,with the variables as input.The study area was di-vided into cell forms,and the regional grades were divided to define the scope of the safety area.Under multiple constraints,the objective function was obtained by using the ant colony algorithm,and the optimal evacuation route was obtained to complete the emergency decision scheme design.The experimental results show that this re-search method is effective for environmental emergencies,and the duration between model establishment and peo-ple evacuation is about half an hour.This short time-consuming means the emergency decision is effective for re-gional environmental emergencies,which would ensure the safety of personnel and property.This research has guiding significance for the prevention and control of regional environmental emergencies.关键词
网格化/Logistic回归模型/区域突发环境事件/疏散路径/应急决策Key words
gridding/logistic regression model/regional environmental emergencies/evacuation route/emergen-cy decision分类
信息技术与安全科学
