中国农业大学学报2024，Vol.29Issue(2)：160-175,16.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.02.16
曲周县土地利用碳排放测算及情景预测研究
Carbon emission measurement and prediction of land use in Quzhou County based on carbon neutrality target
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global warming,China has actively committed to and carried out actions to control greenhouse gas emissions with a view to achieving carbon peaks by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.In order to clarify the mechanism of land use carbon emissions and reasonably predict carbon emissions,Quzhou County was taken as the research area,and the carbon emission accounting system was constructed by using emission coefficient method,sample plot inventory method,IPAT model and least square method to measure the carbon emissions of land use in Quzhou County from 2009 to 2019,and to predict the carbon emissions in 2030 under 81 scenario combinations.The results show that:1)The total land use carbon emissions of Quzhou County from 2009 to 2019 showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.Cultivated land and construction land are two major sources of carbon emissions;2)The prediction is first set based on per capita GDP,and further 81 scenario combinations are set based on population,energy intensity,and industrial structure:it can be obtained that when GDP is in high-speed development,the simulated value range of total carbon emissions in Quzhou County in the future is 0.50-2.21 million tons;when GDP is in inertial development,the upward trend group interval is 0.51-1.19 million tons,the minimum value is 0.45 million tons,and the minimum value of the downward trend group is 0.29 million tons;when GDP is developing at a low speed,the two groups of minimum values that show a downward trend are 0.21 million tons and 0.12 million tons respectively,and the other group is predicted to be 0.35-0.50 million tons in 2030.It is concluded that land use change will directly or indirectly affect carbon emissions,and finding out the carbon attributes of land can provide a starting point for predicting carbon emissions and optimizing land use structure.In summary,Quzhou County can achieve low-carbon green development while developing the economy through population optimization,adjustment of energy structure,and optimization of industrial structure.关键词
碳排放/土地利用/IPAT模型/碳排放预测Key words
carbon emissions/land use/IPAT model/carbon emission prediction引用本文复制引用
杨蕴琦,郝晋珉,张金懿,武子豪,孙逸航..曲周县土地利用碳排放测算及情景预测研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2024,29(2):160-175,16.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD06B01) （2015BAD06B01）
