中国人兽共患病学报2023，Vol.39Issue(11)：1065-1071,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2023.00.125
福建省新冠奥密克戎BA.2和BA.5.2亚型毒株引发的本土疫情传播动力学分析及防控效果评估
Analysis of transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control of local epidemics caused by the Omicron BA.2 and BA.5.2 COVID-19 strains in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
This study evaluated the scientific nature and effectiveness of iterative optimization of prevention and control measures for local outbreaks caused by the BA.2 and BA.5.2 COVID-19 strains in Fujian Province in 2022,to provide a scientif-ic basis for responding to future new or recurrent respiratory infectious diseases.According to the theory of infectious disease dynamics,relevant information regarding the local epidemic situation caused by the BA.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in March 2022 and BA.5.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in October 2022 in Fujian Province was collected.The susceptible exposed infectious removed(SEIAR)model of COVID-19 infection with a latent period and asymptomatic infected persons was used to analyze the transmission dynam-ics of two local epidemic situations,and evaluate the preven-tion and control effects.The incubation period of the BA.2 epidemic was 3 days(1～9 days),the intergenerational inter-val was 3 days(1～5 days),and the initial Rt was 3.0(95％CI:2.7～3.3).The incubation period of the BA.5.2 epidemic was 2 days(1～6 days),the intergenerational interval was 1 day(0～2 days),and the initial R,was 1.9(95％CI:1.7～2.1).The fittingresults for the BA.2 and BA.5.2 epidemics were good,and no statistical difference was observed between the predic-ted and actual numbers of cases(x2BA.2=31.53,x2BA.5.2=27.88,P＞0.05).If an emergency response had not been initiated,the BA.2 epidemic would have continued to spread andpeak on April 7th,with an estimated 638 035 cases.The BA.5.2 epidemic would have rapidly spread,reaching a peak on November 14th,with an estimated 685 940 cases.If one incubation period were detected early,the scale of the BA.2 epidemic would have decreased by 25.73％;if two incubation periods were detected early,the scale would have decreased by 79.56％,and if one incubation period had been delayed,the scale would have expanded by 13.72％.If one incubation period had been detected early in the BA.5.2 epidemic,the scale would have decreased by 35.04％;if two incubation periods had been detected early,the scale would have decreased by 92.47％;and if one incubation period had been delayed,the scale would have increased by 19.75％.The guiding ideology,and the prevention and control measures for handling two local epidemics were optimized and iterated.Our study indicated that implementing the"four early"measures ef-fectively decreased the scale of the epidemic,and earlier detection was associated with more significant control effects.This study provides valuable information for the prevention and control of new or recurrent respiratory infectious diseases.关键词
新冠病毒感染/传播动力学模型/新发或再发传染病/防控效果评估Key words
COVID-19/propagation dynamics model/new or recurrent infectious diseases/evaluation of prevention and control effectiveness分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
叶雯婧,邓艳琴,郑奎城,吴生根,詹美蓉,黄峥强,蔡少健,陈武,欧剑鸣,黄杰锋,陈田木..福建省新冠奥密克戎BA.2和BA.5.2亚型毒株引发的本土疫情传播动力学分析及防控效果评估[J].中国人兽共患病学报,2023,39(11):1065-1071,7.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金项目(No.2021J01353)、中央引导地方科技发展专项(No.2021L3018)和福建省卫生健康中青年骨干人才培养项目(No.2021GGB010)共同资助.Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(No.2021J01353),Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(No.2021L3018)and Fujian Provincial Health and Middle-aged Youth Backbone Talent Training Project(No.2021GGB010). （No.2021J01353）
