干旱区地理2023，Vol.46Issue(12)：1963-1972,10.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.023
基于Budyko模型的巴音布鲁克山区暖季人工增水作业效果分析
Effect of artificial precipitation enhancement in Bayanbulak mountain area in warm seasons based on Budyko model
摘要
Abstract
Although precipitation serves as a common statistical indicator,its utility is limited by the availability of representative station data,which is affected by geographical,economic,technical,and other effects.Such limi-tations can introduce inaccuracies in the assessment of the effectiveness of artificial precipitation enhancement.To address these challenges,this study focused on daily meteorological data from the Bayanbulak meteorological station and monthly runoff data from the Dashankou hydrological station in Xinjiang,China,from May to Sep-tember in 1973-2018.This study involved building a runoff simulation equation using the Budyko model.To ob-jectively and quantitatively analyze the impact of artificial precipitation enhancement in the Bayanbulak moun-tain area during warm seasons,sequence tests,unpaired rank sum tests,and t-tests were used.The results show the following:(1)The use of the Budyko model for building simulated runoff not only synchronized with the changing trends and growth rates of precipitation but also demonstrated a highly significant correlation(R2= 0.9971,P<0.001).This shows that the simulated runoff not only captured the overall precipitation trends but also quantified the impact of precipitation on runoff.(2)Utilizing an unpaired rank sum test and t-test,it was found that both precipitation and runoff significantly increased(P<0.02)after artificial precipitation enhancement when considering measured runoff,simulated runoff,and precipitation as statistical variables.(3)The best statistical in-dicator for assessing the impact of artificial precipitation enhancement was precipitation,accounting for only 11.59%of the added value to statistically test the effect.Compared with the measured runoff,the test efficiency value of the simulated runoff decreased by 3.72%,indicating that the test efficiency was improved.(4)With a se-lected significance level of a 90%confidence interval,the absolute increase in precipitation was 5.38 mm,repre-senting a relative increase rate of 12.05%.The absolute increase in the simulated runoff was 4.53 m3·s-1,indicat-ing a relative increase rate of 14.70%.The absolute increase in the measured runoff was 28.48 m3·s-1,correspond-ing to a relative increase rate of 18.48%.This indicates the important impact of artificial precipitation enhancement during the warm seasons in the operation period(1994-2018)compared with the historical period(1973-1993)in the Bayanbulak mountain area.关键词
人工增水/统计分析/效果评估/巴音布鲁克山区Key words
artificial precipitation enhancement/statistical analysis/effect evaluation/Bayanbuluk mountain area引用本文复制引用
刁鹏,李刚,袁先雷,温春..基于Budyko模型的巴音布鲁克山区暖季人工增水作业效果分析[J].干旱区地理,2023,46(12):1963-1972,10.基金项目
新疆气象科技创新发展基金项目(QN202111)资助 （QN202111）
