工业工程2023，Vol.26Issue(6)：83-92,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2023.06.009
人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型
An Improved Weighted BN-CREAM Model for Human Reliability Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Though there exists many defects in traditional cognitive reliability and error analysis methods(CREAM),which leads to narrow application,they still have great development potential.This paper proposes a model combining an improved weighted Bayesian network(BN)and CREAM to improve the accuracy of evaluation and expand the application of the method.In this model,the weights of factors in the scenario are obtained first by the Grey-DEMATEL method.Then,the probability distribution of adjusted common performance condition(CPC)factor nodes is obtained by Bayesian network inference.Afterwards the weighted factors are sampled and simulated to obtain the probability distribution of the control mode in the scenario.A case study of 1800 W customized SEED power supply is used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model through analysis of evaluation results and comparison with other methods.The improved model has wider applicability and more objective outputs,which provides a reference for the construction of Human Reliability Analysis(HRA)index systems.关键词
人因可靠性评价/认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)/灰色-决策与实验室法/贝叶斯网络Key words
human reliability analysis/cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)/Grey-DEMATEL(grey decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory)/Bayesian network分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
马彦辉,左凯瑛,王颖,王志琼..人因可靠性评价的改进加权BN-CREAM模型[J].工业工程,2023,26(6):83-92,10.基金项目
国家国防科技工业局资助项目(JSZL2019204A001 （）
JSZL2021204B001 （）
JSZL2022204B005) （）
国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71902138) （71902138）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(19YJC630181) （19YJC630181）
