交通运输研究2023，Vol.9Issue(5)：120-132,13.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2023.05.012
基于EOC模型的地铁运营延误事件结构化情景构建方法
A Structured Scenario Construction Method for Subway Operation Delay Events Based on EOC Model
卢弋 1宋晓敏 2翟昕茹 3李瑜芬 1庄异凡3
作者信息
- 1. 上海申通地铁集团有限公司运营管理中心,上海 201100
- 2. 交通运输部科学研究院,北京 100029||城市公共交通智能化交通运输行业重点实验室,北京 100029
- 3. 上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院,上海 201620
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To address the lack of a rational structured scenario construction method for managing sub-way operational delays,and the difficulty in establishing accurate and effective attribute knowledge to assist emergency dispatch decision-making with less reliance on subjective experience,the EOC(Ele-ment-Object-Consequence)model was introduced.Combining the human-machine-environment safe-ty system and the characteristics of operational delay events,a scenario construction framework cen-tered around train operations,involving elements,objects,consequences,management and response,was proposed.An event scenario attribute correlation analysis model was established,and an auxiliary decision-making application process was designed.Based on this,the application and visualization of scenario construction were demonstrated using an example of operational delays caused by power sup-ply faults.The attribute interrelationships and sensitivity was analyzed.Finally,the delay time for new power supply fault events was predicted and compared with actual results.The results indicate that,under the assumption of equal weighting for elements and objects,environmental factors,the year of line opening,and the maximum operational lifespan of trains have significant impacts on the overall correlation of power supply fault events.The prediction error for new events'delay time is within 15％compared to the actual delay time,validating the feasibility of the structured scenario con-struction method for event impact prediction.关键词
情景构建/EOC模型/地铁运营安全/延误事件/事故致因Key words
scenario construction/Element-Object-Consequence model/subway operation safe-ty/delay events/accident causes分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
卢弋,宋晓敏,翟昕茹,李瑜芬,庄异凡..基于EOC模型的地铁运营延误事件结构化情景构建方法[J].交通运输研究,2023,9(5):120-132,13.
