健康研究2023，Vol.43Issue(6)：683-687,5.DOI:10.19890/j.cnki.issn1674-6449.2023.06.016
肛瘘复发的风险预测模型构建
A risk model and clinical application for prediction of anal fistula recurrence
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the risk factors linked to postoperative recurrence of anal fistula and develop a predictive model for postoperative recurrence risk.This will establish the foundation for predicting clinical anal fistula postoperative recurrence.Methods Data was gathered from inpatients who underwent anal fistulotomy for the clinical analysis of anal fistula.Logistic multiple regression models were employed to identify the independent factors of postoperative recurrence of anal fistula,followed by an assessment of the clinical effectiveness of the Nomogram model via ROC curve and decision curve analysis.Results Patients with alternative anorectal conditions,a surgical history of anal trauma or anal fistula,constipation,and high anal fistula had a greater incidence of postoperative recurrence.Patients with anal fistula recurrence displayed lower mean haemoglobin volume,mean erythrocyte volume,and haemoglobin content in comparison to patients without recurrence after surgery,with all differences being statistically significant(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)for mean volume of haemoglobin,mean volume of erythrocytes,and haemoglobin content were 0.919,0.907,and 0.924,sequentially.Optimal cut-off values were 23.69 pg,73.66 fl,and 111.15 g/L.Other anorectal disorders,prior anal fistula surgery,high anal fistulae,and mean haemoglobin volume(≤23.69 pg),mean erythrocyte volume(≤73.66 fl),and haemoglobin content(≤111.15 g/L)were identified as independent risk factors associated with high recurrence rates following anal fistula surgery(P＜0.05).Conclusions Developed a Nomogram model to forecast the likelihood of recurrence of postoperative anal fistula,drawing on anorectal diseases,surgical history of anal fistula,high anal fistula,average hemoglobin,average erythrocyte volume,and hemoglobin content.This model is of great value for the prediction of the recurrence of postoperative anal fistula.关键词
肛瘘/复发风险因素/预测模型/风险评估Key words
anal fistula/relapse risk factors/prediction model/risk assessment分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
洪中华,尹和宅,沈桂鑫,王启,钦梦婷,童蕾,陈会林..肛瘘复发的风险预测模型构建[J].健康研究,2023,43(6):683-687,5.基金项目
浙江省中医药管理局课题(2021ZB287) （2021ZB287）
嘉兴市科技计划项目(2020AD30015) （2020AD30015）
