环境与职业医学2023，Vol.40Issue(12)：1431-1436,6.DOI:10.11836/JEOM23130
2016-2019年深圳市龙华区气温与14岁及以下人群流感发病的关联研究
Association between temperature and influenza in children 14 years of age and below in Longhua District of Shenzhen,2016-2019
摘要
Abstract
[Background]Influenza is an important public health issue of global concern.Meteorological fac-tors are one of the important factors affecting the incidence of influenza.Exploring the correlation between temperature and influenza can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of influenza in specific regions. [Objective]To explore the association and attributable risk between temperature and influenza incidence in residents aged 0-14 years in Longhua District of Shenzhen. [Methods]Meteorological observation data were collected from the Meteorological Bureau of Longhua District,Shenzhen City from January 2016 to December 2019.A total of 19657 influenza cases among children of 0-14 years old were identified from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention during the same period.Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the correlation between daily incidence of influenza and meteorological factors.Distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the association and lag effect of temperature on influenza incidence in different gender and age groups,and to estimate the at-tributable risk of temperature on influenza incidence. [Results]From January 2016 to December 2019,the average daily incidence of influenza in this area was 13.45 cases,and the male to female ratio was 1.36∶1.The proportion of cases in<5 years old and 5-14 years old groups was 50.05%and 49.95%,respectively.The results of Spearman correlation analysis showed that among all meteorological factors,the daily mean temperature had the most sig-nificant impact on the daily incidence of influenza,showing a negative correlation r=-0.1541.There was a non-linear exposure-effect relationship between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence in different lag days.There were two peaks in the risk of influenza incidence caused by daily mean temperature at a cumulative lag of 14 d,and the maximum risk was at 11℃(RR=8.15,95%CI:5.73,11.60).In addition,the attributable risks of daily mean temperature on females and residents aged 5-14 years were greater than those on males and other age groups respectively.Both low and high temperatures had effects on influenza,but the proportion of low temperature effect(44.58%)was much greater than that of high temperature effect(4.92%).Low temperature had risk effects on residents of both genders and all age groups,with the greatest effect on residents aged 5-14 years old,and the cumulative risk was the highest at lag 14 d(RR=12.80,95%CI:8.29,18.93).The lag effect of high temperature appeared in residents aged 5-14 years,with the highest cumulative risk at lag 14 d. [Conclusion]Temperature significantly influences influenza incidence among children 14 years and under in Longhua District of Shen-zhen.In particular,it has a greater impact on girls and people aged 5-14 years old,and low temperature poses a higher risk than high temperature.关键词
气温/流行性感冒/分布滞后非线性模型/滞后效应/归因风险评估Key words
temperature/influenza/distributed lag non-linear model/effect of lag/attribution risk assessment分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
梁敏仪,张敏怡,范顺昌,吴若君,陈宏标,陈清..2016-2019年深圳市龙华区气温与14岁及以下人群流感发病的关联研究[J].环境与职业医学,2023,40(12):1431-1436,6.基金项目
深圳市龙华区医疗卫生机构区级科研项目(2021042) （2021042）
