人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(1)：151-155,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.01.026
河南省水利建设资金投入实证分析与预测研究
Empirical Analysis and Prediction Research on the Investment of Water Conservancy Construction Funds in Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
Water conservancy construction investment is a crucial foundation for promoting economic and social development.Through empiri-cal analysis of the investment situation in Henan Province during both the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans(2011-2020),this study explores the changes and trends in water conservancy construction investment,its relationship with economic and social development,its impact on output efficiency,and its contribution to overall development.By utilizing comparative analysis,correlation analysis,input-output analysis,and contribution rate analysis,the study illuminated the vital role of water conservancy construction investment in driving sustainable pro-gress.According to renowned scholars,the investment in water conservancy construction is closely tied to both economic and social progress,yielding a highly favorable multiplier effect.Nevertheless,the erratic patterns within this investment over time can severely impede not only the water conservancy industry,but also overall economic and social development.Based on the latest research findings,the GM and ARIMA predictive models are implemented to forecast that the total scale of water conservancy construction investment in Henan Province over the 14th Five-Year Plan will amount to approximately 283.895 billion yuan,with an average contribution rate of 0.41%to GDP growth and 3.70%to fiscal revenue growth.Finally,optimizing water conservancy construction investment in the next stage in Henan Province were pro-posed.关键词
水利建设投资/经济发展/实证分析/预测/河南省Key words
investment in water conservancy construction/economic development/empirical analysis/prediction/Henan Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
彭直,楚楠,王浩,宋琳月..河南省水利建设资金投入实证分析与预测研究[J].人民黄河,2024,46(1):151-155,5.基金项目
河南省自然科学基金青年项目(212300410125) （212300410125）
河南省科技攻关项目(232102320028) （232102320028）
