全球能源互联网（英文）2023，Vol.6Issue(6)：661-674,14.DOI:10.1016/j.gloei.2023.11.001
考虑源荷相关性的综合能源系统越限风险评估方法
Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation
摘要
Abstract
In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.关键词
概率能流/多项式混沌展开/相关性/风险评估/协方差分析Key words
Probabilistic energy flow/Polynomial chaos expansion/Correlation/Risk assessment/Analysis of covariance引用本文复制引用
王英,王小君,张义志,张益岗,许泽凯..考虑源荷相关性的综合能源系统越限风险评估方法[J].全球能源互联网（英文）,2023,6(6):661-674,14.基金项目
This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51977005). （No.51977005）
