护理学报2023，Vol.30Issue(23)：1-5,5.DOI:10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2023.23.001
基于Meta分析构建早产儿母亲泌乳建立风险预测评分模型
Construction of prediction scoring model for lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth:a Meta-analysis
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct and verify the prediction scoring model for lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth,and provide reference for early identification of risk group.Methods Meta-analysis was used to analyze the factors of lactation risk in mothers of premature infants,and the model was established using the natural logarithm of the overall risk level for each risk factor as the coefficient,and the natural logarithm of the ratio between the failure rate and non-failure rate of lactation among mothers of preterm infants as the model coefficient.The risk factors were then assigned scores based on their respective coefficient values to construct the model.The data of 112 mothers experiencing premature birth from March to September,2022 were collected,and the predictive performance of the model was analyzed.Results The model was constructed with logit(P)=-0.072+0.389 age+0.452 gestational hypertension+1.008 gestational diabetes+0.434 postpartum depression+0.538 lactation phase Ⅱ start-up delay+0.607 daily milking frequency+0.515 milk opening time+0.445 lack of sleep.The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.900(95%CI:0.841～0.958);the Jordan index 0.717,and the critical value 2.070.The probability value of the model was 88.8%,with sensitivity and specificity of 0.889 and 0.828 respectively.The verification results of the model showed that the score ranged from 0 to 113,and a score above 55.5 indicated a high risk of lactation.The area under ROC curve was 0.900(95%CI:0.842～0.958),and the Jordan index 0.717,with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.889 and 0.828.The positive predictive value was 82.8%,and the negative predictive value 82.8%.Conclusion The prediction scoring model of lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth based on meta-analysis has good prediction efficiency,and can be used for lactation screening of premature mothers and establishment of risk groups.关键词
泌乳建立/预测模型/风险评分/Meta分析/危险因素/母乳喂养Key words
lactation establishment/prediction model/risk scoring/Meta analysis/risk factor/breastfeeding分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
孙菲,刘敏,胡珊珊,吴蕾,刘君,李萍..基于Meta分析构建早产儿母亲泌乳建立风险预测评分模型[J].护理学报,2023,30(23):1-5,5.基金项目
无锡市科技发展资金项目(Y20212036) （Y20212036）
无锡市中医药管理局科技项目(ZYKJ202113) （ZYKJ202113）
无锡市妇幼健康科研和适宜技术推广项目(FYKY202201) （FYKY202201）
