生态学报2023，Vol.43Issue(24)：10156-10170,15.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202211053168
气候变化下中国主要生物燃油树种分布与变迁
Distribution and change of major biofuel tree species in China under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Biofuel tree species are the important material basis for developing biomass energy and realizing the strategy of fossil energy substitution.Clarifying the distribution of suitable tree species for biofuel in our country under current and future climate change plays an important role in protecting and utilizing tree species resources,promoting the development of the forestry bioenergy industry,ensuring energy security,and realizing the goal of"double carbon".Based on the distribution data of 1037 species of 10 major biofuel species and 20 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict the distribution of potentially suitable areas of major biofuel species in China under current and future climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070).The environmental factors with the greatest impact on the distribution of tree species were obtained,and the major tree species planted in each region of China were zoned.The results showed that(1)the MaxEent model had a good prediction effect,and the area under the curve(AUC)values of the simulation results were above 0.9 for all tree species.(2)The environmental factors with high contribution to the distribution of each tree species differed from species to species.Precipitation of warmest quarter and temperature seasonality had relatively high contribution rates.(3)The highly suitable areas of the 10 biofuel species ranged from 433,800 km2 to 1,177,400 km2,and the distribution of tree species could be divided into four subzones;northern,central-eastern,southeastern,and southwestern based on the simulation results.The main tree species in the northern subzone were Xanthoceras sorbifolium and Cerasus humilis.The main tree species in the central-eastern subzone were Rhus chinensis,Idesia polycarpa,Sapindus saponari,Triadica sebifera,and Pistacia chinensis.The main tree species in the southeastern subzone were Cornus wilsoniana and Litsea cubeba.The main tree species in the southwestern subzone was Jatropha curcas.The distribution of each tree species was consistent with the forestry biomass energy development plan released by China.(4)Compared with the current situation,under the RCP4.5 scenario in 2070,the suitable area of Cerasus humilis and Litsea cubeba showed an increasing trend with 317,900 km2 and 56,100 km2 increase,respectively.While the area of other species decreased,ranging from 52,500 km2 to 386,300 km2.The distribution centers of Cornus wilsoniana and Litsea cubeba will move northwest in the future.The distribution centers of Rhus chinensis,Triadica sebifera,and Jatropha curcas will move southeast,while all other tree species will move northeast.关键词
生物燃油树种/气候变化/MaxEnt/适生区区划/生物能源Key words
biofuel tree species/climate change/MaxEnt/habitat zoning/bioenergy引用本文复制引用
唐梦,陈静,杨灵懿,贾翔,刘济铭,段劼..气候变化下中国主要生物燃油树种分布与变迁[J].生态学报,2023,43(24):10156-10170,15.基金项目
北京林业大学大学生创新创业训练项目(X202110022020) （X202110022020）
国家林业和草原局委托项目(2020020011) （2020020011）
