水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(1)：301-314,14.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.007
基于PSR-OWA模型的海口市生态风险评价及模拟研究
Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation of Haikou City Based on PSR-OWA Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Evaluating regional ecological risks and revealing their spatial-temporal evolution pat-terns are important for reducing regional ecological risks,maintaining ecological security,and rational spatial development and planning of national land.[Methods]Based on the Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images of Haikou in 2000,2010 and 2020,evaluation factors such as regional accumulative cyclone energy,urban development and utilization intensity and tourism pressure were introduced.A regional ecological risk assess-ment model based on Pressure-State-Response(PSR)under typical natural environment and socio-economic background at grid scale was constructed to explore the spatial distribution pattern,spatial-temporal differ-entiation and correlation characteristics of regional ecological risks in the past 20 years.Based on bivariate global spatial autocorrelation,the response relationship of urbanization level to regional ecological risk in Haikou City was revealed,and the GIS-OWA model was coupled to simulate the spatial and temporal config-uration of ecological risk in Haikou City and its ecological protection countermeasures under different scenarios.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the low and high ecological risk areas in Haikou City increased by 229.7 km2 and 91.38 km2,respectively,and the area of medium ecological risk area decreased the most,which was 150.48 km2.The ecological status of the study area was generally improved.(2)During the study period,the regional high-level ecological risk area showed a continuous expansion trend,and the ecological risk in the central and western parts of Haikou City was better than that in urban construction areas such as the north and Jiangdong New Area.(3)Moran's I was higher than 0.6 in the three periods and showed an increasing trend.The spatial aggregation characteristics of ecological risks were obvious and showed a significant spatial positive correlation.The ecological risk pattern and its spatial correlation pattern showed heterogeneity char-acteristics of'high in the north and south,low in the middle'and'hot in the east and cold in the west'.The impact of urbanization level on regional ecological risk was deepening.(4)Low risk(87.5％),medium risk(33.6％),and high risk(70.7％)occupied a certain dominant position in the three simulation models of'eco-logical priority','maintenance status'and'development priority',respectively.[Conclusion]Ecological risks in Haikou city show a positive development trend,with significant spatial heterogeneity,and the devel-opment trend is greatly influenced by policy makers.The results of this study can provide the theoretical basis and decision support for ecological risk prevention,land use optimization decision-making,and sustain-able management of regional ecosystems in Haikou City.关键词
生态风险/PSR/空间自相关/空间分异特征/OWAKey words
ecological risk/PSR/spatial autocorrelation/spatial differentiation characteristics/OWA分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
胡纪汉,毛铭江,龚文峰,刘铁冬,邱新彩,吴庚鸿,谢艺丹..基于PSR-OWA模型的海口市生态风险评价及模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(1):301-314,14.基金项目
海南省自然科学基金(621RC507) （621RC507）
中国气象局海南生态环境监测项目(ZQC-J20142) （ZQC-J20142）
海口市智慧林业重点实验室资助(2020-057) （2020-057）
海南大学自然科学基金(KYQD(ZR)20058) （KYQD(ZR）
