中国粮食主产省区农业碳排放特征及影响因素OACSTPCD

[Objective]Analyzing the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in major grain-producing provinces and regions can provide reference for promoting carbon emission reduction and sustainable agricultural development.[Methods]Based on four types of agricultural carbon emission sources,namely,agricultural input materials,crop cultivation,livestock and poultry breeding,and straw burning,the agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas from 2010 to 2020 were meas-ured and the TAPIO decoupling model and LMDI model were used to analyze the characteristics and influen-cing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas.[Results]From 2010 to 2020,the carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas increased first and then decreased.The carbon emis-sions in 2010 increased from 860.78 Mt to 871.64 Mt in 2020,with the increase of 10.86 Mt,or 1.26％.In 2017,it reached a peak of 927.68 Mt.Agricultural inputs were the main source of carbon emissions.The car-bon emission intensity showed a downward trend,and the highest carbon emission intensity in the province could reach to 3.99 t/million.In terms of the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth,low emission and high yield areas were ideal.Currently,most of the study provinces are in high discharge and low yield areas,except for Hebei Province which is a low discharge and high yield area.The relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economy in the main grain producing areas had been continuously improved.By 2020,seven provinces could be in a strong decoupling state.Agricultural production efficiency,regional industrial structure,rural population and agricultural industrial structure are the main factors to curb carbon emissions.[Conclusion]Achieving carbon emission reduction in the main grain producing areas and promoting sustainable agricultural development should be promoted in a concerted manner by improving agricultural production efficiency and controlling the amount of slaughtered and stocked livestock and poultry.