统计与决策2023，Vol.39Issue(24)：130-135,6.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2023.24.023
开放环境下的中国自然利率估算
Estimation of China's Natural Interest Rate in an Open Economy Environment
摘要
Abstract
This paper uses the LW model to estimate the natural interest rates of China from 2002 to 2022 in an open econo-my environment,and draws the following conclusions:(1)China's natural interest rates were based on outward circular pricing in the past,and the domestic capital market is highly dependent on the global economy.(2)China's natural interest rates have shown a long-term declining trend since 2012,which is consistent with the natural interest rate movement of major economies.This trend is expected to be irreversible in the long run.(3)The natural interest rate level in 2019 was 1.93%,which still maintains a certain spread with major economies.(4)From 2020 to 2022,the natural interest rate and the potential growth rate fell by 0.65 and 2.46 percentage points respectively.It is likely that potential growth rate will return to the 4.5%～5.0%in 2023,and the natural interest rate is expected to rebound over 1.6%.Based on the absolute level of the natural interest rate,the ZLB will not pose a de facto threat in the short term,and traditional monetary policy still maintains considerable policy space.关键词
自然利率/LW模型/货币政策/开放环境/ZLBKey words
natural interest rate/LW model/monetary policy/open economy/ZLB分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李正..开放环境下的中国自然利率估算[J].统计与决策,2023,39(24):130-135,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD053) （22&ZD053）
国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BJY068) （21BJY068）
