现代电子技术2024，Vol.47Issue(2)：127-132,6.DOI:10.16652/j.issn.1004-373x.2024.02.024
基于时序分解和SARIMA-DSR的台区可开放容量计算方法
Method of station area openable capacity calculation based on time series decomposition and SARIMA-DSR
摘要
Abstract
Reasonable analysis and accurate calculation of station area openable capacity can optimize the operation of the distribution system,improve the utilization rate of the line,and ensure the safe,economical and stable operation of the station area distribution transformers.The traditional open capacity calculation method is mainly based on empirical formulas for line transmission capacity,without considering the short-term and seasonal characteristics of high load operating areas,resulting in low calculation accuracy and universality.A station area openable capacity calculation method based on seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess(STL),seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(SARIMA)and dynamic simultaneity rate(DSR)is proposed.In this method,the STL is used to decompose the historical load data of the station into trend terms,seasonal terms and residual terms.The SARIMA station area load prediction model is established according to the adjusted historical load data of station area to predict the future load change and load peak value of the station area.At the same time,the DSR of the station area is established according to the historical load data of the station area.A SARIMA-DSR model is constructed,and the configuration coefficients in the openable capacity calculation method is adjusted reasonably,so as to realzie the accurate calculation of the openable capacity of the station area.关键词
可开放容量/SARIMA/动态同时率/STL/时序分解/负荷预测Key words
openable capacity/SARIMA/dynamic simultaneity rate/STL/time series decomposition/load forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
冯隆基,楚成博,方磊,钱勇,张法业,王宁,王金喜..基于时序分解和SARIMA-DSR的台区可开放容量计算方法[J].现代电子技术,2024,47(2):127-132,6.基金项目
国网江苏省电力有限公司新技术项目(JS2102150) （JS2102150）
