西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(1)：106-114,9.DOI:10.16783/j.cnki.nwnuz.2024.01.016
黄河流域资源型城市碳达峰情景模拟研究
Scenario projection of peak carbon reach in resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin
摘要
Abstract
Undering climate change seriously,in order to realize the goal of"carbon peak,carbon neutral"in China,carbon emission reduction is urgent,especially in resource cities in the Yellow River basin,the economic development mainly relies on resource industries with high energy consumption and high emission,which makes the task of carbon emission reduction even more arduous.Firstly,based on carbon emission data of resource cities in the Yellow River basin the Bayesian model averaging method is adopted to make factor selection,so as to extracts important information from multiple influencing factors affecting carbon emission,and identifies several variables with a posteriori probability value greater than 50%as important factors affecting carbon emission.Secondly,based on the panel data of resource cities in the Yellow River basin,combined with the scenario analysis method,the individual time-point double fixed-effects panel data model is constructed to predict the carbon emissions of each region under different scenarios in the baseline scenario,policy-oriented scenario and technology-driven scenario.The results show that:coal consumption,urbanization rate,cement production,GDP per capita,natural gas consumption and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin;by comparing the policy-oriented scenario and the technology-driven scenario,it can be found that the policy-oriented scenario is a gradual process,while the technology-driven carbon emission reduction effect is faster and more obvious,and that the baseline scenario under the baseline scenario,it is difficult for the resource-based areas in the Yellow River basin to realize the 2030 carbon peak target.关键词
资源型城市/碳排放/贝叶斯模型平均/面板数据回归模型/情景模拟Key words
resource-based cities/carbon emission/Bayesian model averaging/panel data regression model/scenario simulation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
施晓燕,赵有益,王音璠,史战红..黄河流域资源型城市碳达峰情景模拟研究[J].西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(1):106-114,9.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD161) （22&ZD161）
甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目(22JR5RA855) （22JR5RA855）
甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2022B-104) （2022B-104）
甘肃省人文社会科学项目(23ZC08) （23ZC08）
