摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the relevant predictive factors of benign breast nodule growth in women,and to establish and validate the prediction nomogram model.Methods Female patients with benign breast nodules who were treated in our hospital from January 2021 to January 2022 were regarded as the study subjects.They were divided into the growth group and the non-growth group according to the nodule growth.The risk factors of nodule growth were screened by logistic regression analysis,and the prediction nomograph model was constructed.And the discrimination and consistency of the model were verified by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the calibration graph.Results In this study,182 of 424 pa-tients had nodule growth,with an incidence of 42.92%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age<50 years(OR=1.015),multiple nodules(OR=1.864),cystic nodules(OR=2.130),contralateral nodules(OR=1.705),maximum diameter of nodules<8 mm(OR=2.411),and increased platelet count(OR=3.206)were risk factors affecting nodule growth(P<0.05).Based on the above risk factors,a nomograph model for predicting the growth risk of benign breast nodules was established.The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)in the modeling group and the validation group was 0.725(95%CI:0.674～0.775)and 0.756(95%CI:0.692～0.820),respectively.The H-L goodness of fit test showed that the deviation be-tween the actual observation value and the risk prediction value in the nomograph model was not statistically ob-vious(the modeling group,χ2 =7.154,P=0.530;the validation group,χ2 =7.113,P=0.512).The calibra-tion curve showed that the calibration curve fitted the ideal curve well.Conclusion Age,multiple nodules,cystic nodules,contralateral nodules,maximum diameter of nodules,and platelet count are independent risk factors for predicting nodule growth.The prediction nomograph model established based on the above parameters can be used as an auxiliary tool to distinguish the risk population of nodule growth.关键词
乳腺结节/结节增长/危险因素/列线图模型Key words
breast nodules/growth/risk factors/nomograph model
