中国中医药信息杂志2024，Vol.31Issue(1)：1-5,5.DOI:10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202304066
基于最大熵模型的甘肃省蒙古黄芪潜在适生区预测及生态特征分析
Prediction of the Potential Habitat of Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province Based on the Maximum Entropy Model and Analysis on Its Ecological Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province,and predict its potential habitat;To provide a theoretical basis for resource conservation of cultivation of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao.Methods Based on the distribution data of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao from field surveys,the maximum entropy model and geographic information system were used to simulate its potential habitat in Gansu Province for the current(1970-2000)and future(2041-2060)periods,and the contribution of environmental factors and the results of the knife-cut test were integrated to assess the important factors governing the distribution of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao.Results The dominant environmental variables governing the geographical distribution of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao were precipitation in the wettest month,average temperature in the wettest season,and elevation.The potential suitable area of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province under current climatic conditions was 65 902.66 km2,and the high suitable area was mainly concentrated in Dingxi District.In the future period,the suitable areas of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao under the scenarios of SSP126,SSP370 and SSP585 all showed a decreasing trend,especially the area of the high suitable areas decreased significantly.Conclusion Future climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitable habitat for A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province.The suitable habitat will mainly move towards high-altitude mountainous areas,and the continuity of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao resources can be maintained by establishing ecological protection zones.关键词
蒙古黄芪/最大熵模型/甘肃省/适生区预测/生态特征Key words
Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao/MaxEnt model/Gansu Province/prediction of habitat/ecological characteristics分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
万广珍,罗永慧,张鼎新,晋玲,陈娟..基于最大熵模型的甘肃省蒙古黄芪潜在适生区预测及生态特征分析[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2024,31(1):1-5,5.基金项目
国家中医药管理局道地药材生态种植及质量保障项目(2022030014) （2022030014）
陇西县科技项目(2022KJ-010) （2022KJ-010）
