植物研究2024，Vol.44Issue(1)：17-26,10.DOI:10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2024.01.004
气候变化背景下糙果紫堇在中国适宜分布区的预测
Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Corydalis trachycarpa(Papaveraceae)in China under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the potential suitable distribution area and the suitable living environment of Corydalis trachycarpa,and to provide a theoretical basis for resource utilization and protection of C.trachycarpa.Based on the existing distribution sites,climatic variables,and environmental variables of C.trachycarpa,MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential distribution of C.trachycarpa in China for four periods under current climate condition(1970-2000)and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)245 scenario model(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,2081-2100),and environmental factors limiting its distribution were analyzed.The results showed that the most important environmental factors determining C.trachycarpa distribution were altitude(Alt,contribution rate was 60.9%),standard deviation of temperature seasonality(bio4,contribution rate was 11.1%),precipitation during the warmest quarter(bio18,contribution rate was 9.4%),and the precipitation variation coefficient(bio15,contribution rate was 7.0%).The cumulative contribution of these four factors was 88.4%.Under current climate conditions,the MaxEnt model predicted a total potential distribution area of approximately 1.7494×106 km2 for C.trachycarpa,primarily distributed in northwest Sichuan,southern Gansu,eastern Xizang,northwest Yunnan,and Qinghai within the eastern Tibetan Plateau.Compared with the current climate conditions the most,moderate and low suitable areas of C.trachycarpa under SSP 245 scenario might increase in the next four periods,showing a trend of expansion toward Yunnan,eastern Xizang,and other lower latitude regions.关键词
糙果紫堇/最大熵模型/地理信息系统/潜在分布区/气候变化Key words
Corydalis trachycarpa/MaxEnt/geographic information system/potential distribution area/climate change分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨倩,袁园,苏旭,刘玉萍,王东,李小莉,孙成林,杨萍..气候变化背景下糙果紫堇在中国适宜分布区的预测[J].植物研究,2024,44(1):17-26,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32160297,31960052) （32160297,31960052）
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0502). （2019QZKK0502）
