广东电力2023，Vol.36Issue(11)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2023.11.001
广东电力低碳高质量发展下的电煤需求影响分析
Influence Analysis of Thermal Coal Demand Under the Low-carbon and High-quality Development of Electric Power in Guangdong Province
摘要
Abstract
From the perspective of clean,low-carbon and high-quality electric power development in Guangdong province,this paper adopts grey relational analysis method and logarithmic mean Divisia index method to describe the dynamic effects of eight factors,such as population size,economic development,industrial structure,power generation intensity of each industry,new energy power generation intensity,power consumption intensity,carbon emission intensity and power coal consumption intensity on the power consumption of Guangdong province.By analyzing the influencing factors of thermal coal consumption in Guangdong province in 2019-2022 quarter and 2012-2022 year,three models of ELM,LSTM and CNN-BILSTM are used to forecast and analyze the future thermal coal consumption in Guangdong province on a quarterly basis.The results show that:in the quarterly analysis,the economic development effect is the primary driving factor to promote the increase of thermal coal consumption,and the industrial structure effect is the most important driving factor to inhibit the increase of thermal coal consumption.In the annual analysis,the economic development effect is the most important driving factor for the increase of thermal coal consumption,and the carbon emission intensity effect is the primary driving factor for the reduction of thermal coal consumption.For the prediction of future thermal coal consumption,the average error rate of CNN-BILSTM model is kept within 10％,which can provide data and technical support for the low-carbon and high-quality development path planning of Guangdong power industry.关键词
电煤消费/需求预测/碳减排/影响分析/对数平均迪氏指数/深度学习Key words
thermal coal consumption/demand forecasting/carbon emission reduction/impact analysis/LMDI/deep learning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
贠晓可,张天任,黄玉萍,龚贤夫,彭勃..广东电力低碳高质量发展下的电煤需求影响分析[J].广东电力,2023,36(11):1-10,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB3304503) （2022YFB3304503）
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(037700KK52220041,GDKJXM20220904) （037700KK52220041,GDKJXM20220904）
