摘要
Abstract
In 2024,the geopolitical situation will be complex and severe,the macroeconomics is facing a slowdown in the US high inflation and high interest rate environment,and the oil market is still facing the dilemma of weak demand and OPEC's strong willingness to cut oil productions.From the macro perspective,the Federal Reserve will enter the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024,oil price are expected to go down and its uncertainty will increase significantly with superimposition on the U.S.election and other geopolitical events.In supply and demand fundamentals,global oil inventories are expected to rise slightly in 2024,and supply & demand will be tightly balanced throughout the year.OPEC will control the market balance,incremental supply will concentrate in the United States and other countries,and global oil demand growth is still focused on China.Combined with the trend of oil prices in 2023,it is expected that,the annual fluctuation range of Brent crude oil prices in the range of $70-$100/barrel,$70/barrel near the bottom of the support,the average price of $83/barrel in 2024 and the volatility of the second half of the pivot will shift downward compared to the first half of the year.关键词
国际油价/石油市场/宏观经济/供需基本面/2024年Key words
international oil prices/oil markets/macroeconomics/supply and demand fundamentals/2024
