摘要
Abstract
In 2023,supply and demand in the global gas market is relatively relaxed,with gas prices gradually returning to the normal.Russia essentially stopped pipeline gas exports to Europe,and Europe continued to import extra-regional LNG,but high gas prices,warm winters,and economic recession led to a decline in demand,and European inventories were at the highest level in recent years.LNG demand in Asia-Pacific also slowed.In 2024,the supply and demand of the natural gas market will remain loose,and the supply growth rate of the supply side dominated by the United States and the Middle East will keep a high level,but Europe and Asia-Pacific,as the demand side highlights of the natural gas buyer market,will be insufficient,the buyer's voice will be strengthened,and the market will gradually return to normality.The current lower gas prices will keep until QI 2024,but price volatility will be higher due to geopolitical,weather factors and other possible supply disruptions.In 2024,the regional price spread from the U.S.to Europe or Asia will maintain a wider level,and the spread is expected to exceed$10/mmBTU.It is recommended that China's oil companies boost their analysis and forecasting of the natural gas market,and increase their participation in the global natural gas trade to ensure domestic energy security.关键词
全球天然气/LNG/供需/价格预测/2024年Key words
global natural gas/LNG/supply and demand/price forecast/2024
