华侨大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.45Issue(1)：61-70,10.DOI:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202310024
伊犁河谷"三生"空间景观生态风险时空演变与多情景模拟
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi Scenario Simulation of Ecological Risks in"Three Lives"Spatial Landscape of Ili River Valley
摘要
Abstract
Based on the land-use data of the Ili River Valley from 1990 to 2020,the landscape ecological risk assessment model was used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the"production-living-ec-ological"("three lives")spaces and landscape ecological risk patterns.The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial patterns and the landscape ecological risk distribution characteristics of"three lives"under the three scenarios including the production space priority,the living space priority and the ecological space priority of the Ili River Valley in 2030.The results showed that,from 1990 to 2020,"three lives"spaces of Ili River Val-ley was dominated by the grassland ecological space,and the area of grassland ecological space and woodland ecological space showed a decreasing trend,while the remaining space showed an increasing trend.In 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,the average landscape ecological risks were 0.035 5,0.033 1,0.034 8 and 0.034 6,re-spectively.The landscape ecological risks of the Ili River Valley showed a trend of first decreasing and then in-creasing,and the risk levels showed a gradient change in spatial distribution.From 2020 to 2030,the land-scape ecological risks showed an upward trend under the three scenarios,and the average value of landscape ec-ological risks which ranged from high to low were the living space,the ecological space,and the production space of priority scenarios.关键词
"三生"空间/景观生态风险/PLUS模型/模拟预测/伊犁河谷Key words
"three lives"space/landscape ecological risk/PLUS model/simulation prediction/Ili River Val-ley分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴常蕊,王宏卫,罗魁,郑旭东,闫晓梅..伊犁河谷"三生"空间景观生态风险时空演变与多情景模拟[J].华侨大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,45(1):61-70,10.基金项目
新疆第三次综合科学考察资助项目(2021xjkk0902) （2021xjkk0902）
