交通信息与安全2023，Vol.41Issue(5)：43-53,11.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.05.005
考虑数据不平衡的城市道路乘用车致命事故率分析
An Analysis of Fatal Accident Rates of Passenger Cars on Urban Roads Considering Imbalanced Data Samples
摘要
Abstract
Traffic accidents on urban roads are frequent,and there is a significant imbalance in accident data.The coupling between different factors caused great challenges in analyzing the fatal accident rate of passenger vehicles on urban roads.Therefore,a three-stage method that integrating resampling,Bayesian networks(BN)and associa-tion rule method(ARM)is proposed.Based on the data of 1105 urban road passenger car accidents from the Nation-al Automobile Accident In-Depth Investigation System(NAIS),the BN model is constructed by selecting 16 poten-tial feature variables from four aspects:driver,vehicle,roadway and environment.Considering the problem that the imbalance of accident types can lead to the degradation performance of BN model.Proposed data re-sampling using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique(SMOTE)and Cluster Centroids(CC)before the construction of BN model.Compare the comprehensive performance of different BN models under various sampling techniques.Final-ly,based on the optimal BN model and combined with the ARM,the effects of different influencing factors and the coupling effect of factors on the fatal accident rate were analyzed.The results show that re-sampling method can sig-nificantly improve the comprehensive performance of BN models and the ability to identify risk factors.Among them,the BN model constructed by SMOTE sampling technique combined with GTT algorithm has the highest AUC of 0.793.Besides,compared with the BN model constructed by the original imbalanced data,the BN model constructed by SMOTE sampling explores six more risk factors.The highest fatal accident rate was 80.4%when"motorized two/three-wheelers"are coupled with"speeding".The next highest fatal accident rate is 77.4%when"motorized two/three wheelers"is coupled with"blind spots in the field of vision".Passenger cars are prone to crash with cars when turning left at the Four-Way Intersection,but the fatal accident rate is less than 20%.This method can reduce the influence of data imbalance on the analysis of road traffic accidents,and realize the analysis of the coupling effect of risk factors,thus preventing and reducing the occurrence of fatal accidents on urban roads.关键词
交通安全/城市道路/致命事故/重采样/贝叶斯网络/关联规则Key words
traffic safety/urban roads/fatal accident/re-sampling/Bayesian networks/association rules分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王朝健,张道文,蒋骏,肖乐..考虑数据不平衡的城市道路乘用车致命事故率分析[J].交通信息与安全,2023,41(5):43-53,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(61803314)资助 （61803314）
