宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）2023，Vol.44Issue(4)：362-368,390,8.
宁夏历史降雨时空分布特征及基于MLP神经网络的趋势预测
Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Historical Rainfall in Ningxia and Trend Prediction Based on MLP Neural Network
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the historical precipitation changes and trends in Ningxia region,the article used sliding average method,primary linear tendency method,precipitation concentration method,super-quantitative method,inverse distance weight interpolation method and MLP neural network to process and analyze the precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations in Ningxia region during 1955-2019.The results show that annual precipitation in Ningxia decreases from south to north,with fluctuating inter-annual precipitation and a slow increasing trend in terms of changes in average precipitation over the years;Most of the extreme precipitation events occurs in the Southern Loess Hilly Region;From the prediction results,it is less likely that Ningxia will enter the precipitation dry period between 2020 and 2025,and the precipitation after linear sliding and the precipitation predicted by MLP neural network both reach the multi-year average precipitation value.关键词
降水/时空变化/降水预测/极端降水/集中指数Key words
precipitation/spatiotemporal change/precipitation prediction/extreme precipitation/concentration index分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵逸雪,褚阳,张汉辰..宁夏历史降雨时空分布特征及基于MLP神经网络的趋势预测[J].宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,44(4):362-368,390,8.基金项目
宁夏重点研发(引才专项)基金资助项目(2020BEB04027) （引才专项）
