宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）2023，Vol.44Issue(4)：391-396,402,7.
基于海洋温度分布模态最优组合的中国东部夏季降水预测研究
Summer Precipitation Prediction in Eastern China Based on Optimal Combination of Ocean Temperature Distribution Modes
摘要
Abstract
Through the EOF-CCA method,the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature in May is used as a predictor to predict summer precipitation in eastern China.Firstly,it performs CCA analysis on the first 15 EOF modes of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature in May and summer precipitation in eastern China,and cross-checks the prediction models built with different numbers of CCA modalities.Then,it evaluates the built predictive model based on technique scoring for cross-checking.The results show that the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific is closely connected to the summer precipitation in eastern China in May,the first 7 CCA modes are better than the 15 CCA modes for the prediction of summer precipitation in eastern China,the prediction results of the first seven CCA modes are better for the Yangtze River Basin,and the correlation coefficient between the predicted values and observed values of the average summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from 1966 to 2015 is 0.41.关键词
中国东部/夏季降水预测/EOF-CCA/交叉检验Key words
eastern China/summer precipitation forecast/EOF-CCA/cross test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴荣,陈星宜,牛旭东,党张利..基于海洋温度分布模态最优组合的中国东部夏季降水预测研究[J].宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,44(4):391-396,402,7.基金项目
宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(2020AAC03470) （2020AAC03470）
