水科学进展2023，Vol.34Issue(6)：827-838,12.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.06.001
预估全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征
Projection of extreme precipitation over the Huai River basin under 1.5℃/2.0℃ global warming
摘要
Abstract
The Huai River basin has been severely affected by rainstorm and flood disasters.It is of great significance to scientifically estimate the changes in extreme precipitation under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in the Huai River basin for flood control and adaptation to climate change.Based on the projections of the 22 GCMs(Global Climate Models)issued in the CMIP6(the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project),the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation and changes in future risk over the Huai River basin are investigated by using the modified reliability ensemble method,probability ratio method and six extreme precipitation indices.The results show that:①The modified reliability ensemble method performs better in simulating extreme precipitation indices over the Huai River basin than the single GCM and arithmetic mean ensemble approach.②The timing spans of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming approximately occur in 2017-2046 and 2026-2055,respectively.③ The increase of extreme precipitation indices under 2.0℃ global warming is 1.4 to 2.6 times of that under 1.5℃ global warming,with the largest increase occurring in the northern region of the Huai River basin.④ Under two global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ ,the risk of extreme precipitation has an increasing trend,and the additional 0.5℃ global warming from 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ will result in higher risk over the Huai River basin.For instance,the return period of a 100-year extreme precipitation will likely become to 32-year and 22-year under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming,respectively.In the future,extreme precipitation events will probably become more frequent over the Huai River basin.关键词
极端降雨/CMIP6/多模式集合/全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃/淮河流域Key words
extreme precipitation/CMIP6/multimodal ensemble/1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming/Huai River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
卞国栋,张建云,王国庆,宋明明..预估全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征[J].水科学进展,2023,34(6):827-838,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006 （）
52279018)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52121006 （）
No.52279018). （）
