水利水电科技进展2024，Vol.44Issue(1)：9-15,22,8.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2024.01.002
基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型的沁河流域水收支平衡演变分析
Evolution analysis of water budget balance in Qinhe River Basin based on regional water balance theory and SWAT model
摘要
Abstract
Based on regional water balance theory and SWAT model,the construction idea of distributed water budget balance model and calculation method of water budget balance were proposed.The water budget balance of the Qinhe River Basin was simulated under human activities and future climate change,and the main factors affecting the water budget balance and its evolution patterns were analyzed with the Pearson correlation coefficient and Mann-Kendall test method.The results show that the total water storage in the Qinhe River Basin decreased from 2010 to 2016,and precipitation and outlet runoff are the key factors affecting the water budget balance in the Qinhe River Basin.In the future,the total water storage will increase under multiple climate scenarios,and the overall changes of annual mean precipitation and outlet runoff are positively correlated with the radiative forcing level.Under the typical climate scenario SSP2-4.5,the precipitation and outlet runoff may have abrupt changes from 2037 to 2041 and from 2061 to 2063.关键词
区域水平衡/水收支平衡/SWAT模型/气候变化/沁河流域Key words
regional water balance/water budget balance/SWAT model/climate change/Qinhe River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
邱曦,马军霞,左其亭,张羽..基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型的沁河流域水收支平衡演变分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2024,44(1):9-15,22,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200201) （2021YFC3200201）
国家自然科学基金项目(52279027) （52279027）
河南省重大公益性科技专项(201300311500) （201300311500）
