统计与决策2024，Vol.40Issue(1)：46-51,6.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2024.01.008
基于中国省域数据人口城镇化率的修正
Revision of Population Urbanization Rate Based on China's Provincial Data
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of the censuses published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the United Nations Law,this paper uses a variety of modified models to obtain growth curve in line with population urbanization.Then,according to China's ac-tual situation,population urbanization rate of China and each province is revised,whose revised results are supported by nighttime light data.The results go as below:First,the difference of sampling deviation rate between different correction methods is small,which is affected by the"one-time revision"of census statistics.The further away from the census statistics year,the greater the deviation rate.Second,the revised result of population urbanization rate obtained by using the method of revising census data based on census revision value makes up for the defect that the statistical yearbook directly uses the 7th National Population Cen-sus as population urbanization rate at the end of 2020.Compared with the theoretical value of population urbanization rate only ob-tained by the United Nations Law and the administrative data correction method based on administrative statistical values,popula-tion urbanization rate based on the sample survey value of the United Nations method is closer to the theory and practice.Then,the correlation between the revised national population urbanization rate and the nighttime light data is above 0.90,and the revised provincial population urbanization rate is basically consistent with the change of nighttime light data.Finally,because Shanghai has entered the"zeroing stage"of population urbanization,large population loss and urban shrinkage occur in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia,which has affected the supporting results of nighttime light data on population urbanization rate.关键词
人口城镇化率修正/联合国法/一次性修正Key words
revision of population urbanization rate/United Nations Law/one-time revision分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
潘志龙,王志宝,蔚丽杰..基于中国省域数据人口城镇化率的修正[J].统计与决策,2024,40(1):46-51,6.基金项目
山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划(2019RWE014) （2019RWE014）
