基于智能网格预报的江西暴雨灾害风险预评估研究OACSTPCD

Based on the precipitation data,daily intelligent grid precipitation forecasting products,rainstorm disaster losses,terrain DEM,river network density,GDP,population and other data in Jiangxi Province from 1951 to 2022,the main influencing factors of rainstorm disaster risk in Jiangxi are analyzed.The risk assessment model of rainstorm disaster in Jiangxi Province is constructed from three aspects:the risk of disaster causing factors of rainstorm disaster,sensitivity of pregnancy disaster environment and the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies.The risk of disaster of 135 regional rainstorm processes from 2010 to 2020 are assessed and tested by the model,which show that the output results of the model are generally feasible.The model is used to assess the disaster risk of the rainstorm process from June 6 to 11,2019 in Jiangxi.The results show that severe disaster area occurred in the northern part of Ji′an,northeast of Ganzhou and the eastern part of Shangrao.The disaster risk of the rainstorm process in Jiangxi from June 12 to 15,2022 is pre-assessed day by day,and the overall effect is good.Both re-sults are generally consistent with the actual distribution of disasters.