灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(1)：146-151,157,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.01.023
人群聚集场所拥挤踩踏风险评估
Risk Assessment of Stampede Accident in Crowd Gathering Place
摘要
Abstract
In order to prevent more accurately the occurrence of stampede accidents,13 risk factors of stam-pede accidents are selected firstly,based on the relevant research on the influencing factors of stampede accidents at home and abroad.Then,through the conceptual coding of 200 stampede accidents worldwide from 2000 to 2022,the frequencies of various risk factors are counted.Lastly,risk levels are quantitatively evaluated by the factor anal-ysis method.The risk factors can be characterized by three dimensions:risk vulnerability,risk tolerance and risk controlment.It is found that the model can be used to calculate and classify the risk level of crowded places through the validation of the Itaewon Stampede in South Korea.Taking Shanghai Wujiaochang square as an example,we construct several typical situations,calculate the risk level of crowding and stampede,and put forward suggestions on risk controlment.This model can provide important references for daily management and prevention of crowding and stampede accidents in crowded places.关键词
拥挤踩踏/事故统计/风险因子/风险评估/因子分析Key words
crowding and trampling/statistical analysis of accidents/risk factors/risk assessment/factor a-nalysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王维莉,薛雪..人群聚集场所拥挤踩踏风险评估[J].灾害学,2024,39(1):146-151,157,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助(71904116) （71904116）
上海市科技创新行动计划项目(19DZ1209600,18DZ1201500) （19DZ1209600,18DZ1201500）
