灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(1)：195-201,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.01.030
区域旱灾风险评估与诊断的动态差异度系数模糊数随机模拟方法
Stochastic Simulation Method of Fuzzy Number of Dynamic Difference Coefficient for Regional Drought Risk Assessment and Diagnosis
摘要
Abstract
In order to carry out the dynamic assessment of drought risk and the quantitative identification of key obstacle factors more accurately and robustly,a triangular fuzzy number and stochastic simulation coupling method with the dynamic change of the difference coefficient with the sample value of the evaluation index is con-structed,and it is then used in the drought risk assessment and diagnosis study of Suzhou City from 2007 to 2017,and the drought risk evaluation value interval with a confidence probability of 95%in Suzhou City is obtained,and the results show that the drought risk assessment results shows a trend of"first increasing,then decreasing,and fi-nally stabilizing".The comprehensive assessment of drought risk is"light risk";The three subsystems of risk,ex-posure and drought resistance are the main reasons affecting the trend change of the comprehensive assessment re-sults of drought risk in the study area.The evaluation indicators of cultivated land rate,reservoir transfer and stor-age rate,and agricultural population ratio are diagnosed as medium hindrance factors,which are the objects that needed to be regulated.The confidence probability interval increases the reliability information of the risk assess-ment results,which can reflect the actual drought risk situation under the combined effect of various uncertain fac-tors,and fully reflects the information of"uncertainty"represented by the number of linkages.关键词
区域/旱灾风险/评估与诊断/动态差异度系数/三角模糊数/随机模拟/安徽宿州Key words
regional/drought risk/assessment and diagnosis/dynamic differentiation coefficient/triangular fuzzy number/stochastic simulation/Suzhou,Anhui分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵齐雅,金菊良,崔毅,汪洁,张诗琪,周乐..区域旱灾风险评估与诊断的动态差异度系数模糊数随机模拟方法[J].灾害学,2024,39(1):195-201,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52109009) （U2240223,52109009）
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2108085QE254,2208085QE179) （2208085US03,2108085QE254,2208085QE179）
安徽省高等科研计划重点项目(2022AH051105) （2022AH051105）
