电测与仪表2024，Vol.61Issue(1)：170-176,7.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2024.01.026
计及维护操作影响的变压器内部潜伏性故障率预测模型
Prediction model of internal latent failure rate of transformer considering the influence of maintenance operation
摘要
Abstract
In order to quantify the actual impact of maintenance operation on the transformer failure rate,this paper estab-lishes a prediction model of transformer internal latent failure rate based on real-time operating conditions by deeply mining the oil chromatographic monitoring data on a short-time scale.This paper firstly analyzes the modeling process of the tradi-tional Markov failure rate model,points out that the independent variable state duration in the model cannot respond to the influence of maintenance operation,and proposes to modify the state duration parameters.The specific steps are to extract the key dissolved gases based on R clustering analysis-principal component analysis(RCA-PCA).And then,the mapping relationship between the key dissolved gas contents and the modified state duration is determined by the radial basis func-tion(RBF)neural network.Finally,the analytical expression of latent failure rate inside transformer with the modified state duration is derived.Results show that the proposed model has the ability to characterize the impact of maintenance operations and the actual failure rate compared with the traditional Markov model.关键词
油浸式变压器/油色谱监测数据/内部潜伏性故障/时变故障率Key words
oil-immersed transformer/oil chromatographic monitoring data/internal latent failure/time-varying failure rate分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
程欣,孙悦,黄威,廖庆龙,李轩,胡博,谢开贵..计及维护操作影响的变压器内部潜伏性故障率预测模型[J].电测与仪表,2024,61(1):170-176,7.基金项目
国网指南项目(5100-201999332A-0-0-00)基于大数据的电力系统可靠性评估关键技术研究及应用 （5100-201999332A-0-0-00）
