摘要
Abstract
The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System(NGFS)published its fourth version of the climate scenario in November 2023.Compared to the third version,the fourth vintage introduces two new acute physical risk hazards,droughts and heatwaves.The contents of the fourth edition of scenario plan mainly include:First,the concept of 7 types of scenario hypothesis and related characteristics are expounded.Second,the model framework involved in the fourth edition of NGFS scenario analysis;Thirdly,the NGFS scenario is used to analyze the related impacts of climate change on macroeconomic and finance.Based on seven scenarios,carbon prices and emissions,as well as related energy demand and prices,and future impacts on energy investment are analyzed.For physical risks,the model is used to distinguish impacts of Chronic physical risks and Acute physical risks on GDP.At the same time,Challenges to acute physical risk model-ling are summarized.This paper compiled the above related content,combined with the policy requirements and related practices of foreign institutions for climate risk scenario analysis,and aimed at the problems existing in China's climate scenario a-nalysis practice,gave relevant policy suggestions grounded on financial institutions'climate and environmental risk scenario analysis test to decision-making reference.关键词
NGFS/气候风险情景/物理风险/宏观经济/金融体系Key words
NGFS/Climate risk Scenario Analysis/Transition Risk/Physical Risk/Macroeconomic and Finance Impacts分类
管理科学
