甘蔗糖业2023，Vol.52Issue(6)：69-83,15.
2022/23年榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2023/24年榨季展望
Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2022/23 Crushing Season and Their Prospect for 2023/24 Crushing Season
摘要
Abstract
Global sugar production increased by 2.09%year-on-year in the 2022/23 crushing season due to production increases in Brazil and Thailand offsetting production cuts in India and the European Union,leaving global sugar supply and demand tightly balanced.Due to the main cane sugar producing areas of Guangxi and Guangdong suffered drought weather,domestic sugar production decreased by 6.17%year-on-year;high sugar prices,the continued inversion of the profit of extra-quota imports led to a big drop in extra-quota imports,sugar imports declined year-on-year,molasses and pre-mixed powder imports increased significantly year-on-year;consumption was basically flat year-on-year due to the unblocking of epidemics overlaid on policy support,the sugar sales in the 2022/23 crushing season progressed at a fast pace,and new industrial inventory were at the lowest level in the last 10 years;due to high sugar prices and economic recovery is not as expected,downstream consumption of sugary foods is not as expected;basis fluctuated around 0 in the early part of the crushing season,then continued to strengthen,and finally plateaued at a high level at the end of 2022/23 crushing season.Looking forward to 2023/24 crushing season,the recent global sugar supply from a tight balance to a easing one,but still faces larger uncertainties.Brazil and the EU are expected to increase production,Thailand and India to reduce production but the extent of the reduction is still uncertain.Therefore,the international sugar prices are more likely to oscillate at 17 to 25 cents per pound.Domestic sugar production is expected to increase resiliently,but there are still climate risk in the main producing areas.The center of gravity of domestic sugar prices shifted down due to the overall easing of the supply and demand situation at home and abroad.In the future,we also need to pay attention to the progress of Brazil's sugar production,India and Thailand production estimates and trade policies,El Niño weather and macroeconomic conditions on the global sugar supply.关键词
食糖/产量/供需/糖价/厄尔尼诺/贸易政策/重要农产品Key words
Sugar/Production/Supply and demand/Sugar prices/El Niño/Trade policy/Important agricultural products分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘晓雪,蒙威宇,李维..2022/23年榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2023/24年榨季展望[J].甘蔗糖业,2023,52(6):69-83,15.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项经费资助(CARS-170601) （糖料）
