环境保护科学2024，Vol.50Issue(1)：110-119,10.DOI:10.16803/j.cnki.issn.1004-6216.202212027
基于数值模式与客观方法的辽宁地区空气质量预报检验分析
Verification analysis of air quality forecast based on numerical models and objective methods in Liaoning
摘要
Abstract
To test the numerical models and objective methods of air quality forecast ability,based on the product of the CUACE model of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(AMS),the CUACE model of Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment of China Meteorological Administration(SY-CMA)and the National Meteorological Center(NMC)air quality objective prediction method,the ground observation data of air pollutant mass concentration in 14 cities in Liaoning were used to test the forecast effects of various forecast products in Liaoning from January 2019 to April 2021.The results showed that the Air Quality Index(AQI)of NMC was larger than the real data,but the AQI of AMS and SY-CMA were smaller.The PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations of each forecast product were relatively small,but the prediction error of NMC was the smallest.The O3 mass concentration of each forecast product was relatively large,and the prediction error of AMS was the smallest.The prediction ability of each forecast product for the changing trend of PM2.5 and O3 mass concentration was relatively high,and the prediction ability of the AQI-range was stronger than the AQI level.The products have smaller dispersion and deviation of PM2.5 mass concentration,and the TS score is the highest.The prediction reliability of air pollutant concentration and AQI was the highest in southeast Liaoning and the worst in central Liaoning.Compared with the three products,NMC had the strongest forecasting ability in Liaoning,with the highest forecast TS scores for AQI,air pollutant concentration,and primary pollutants,especially in the seasons corresponding to specific primary pollutants(or without obvious primary pollutants),which was more instructive.The prediction ability of the localized CUACE model of SY-CMA for atmospheric pollutant concentration and AQI was significantly improved.关键词
预报检验/CUACE模式/客观预报/空气质量/首要污染物/TS评分Key words
forecast verification/CUACE-Haze/Fog mode/objective forecast/AQI/primary pollutant/TS score分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张宸赫,王东东,李晓岚,杜傢义,赵天良..基于数值模式与客观方法的辽宁地区空气质量预报检验分析[J].环境保护科学,2024,50(1):110-119,10.基金项目
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2020-MS-350) （2020-MS-350）
辽宁省气象局科研(重点)项目(202004) （重点）
环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202103) （QYXM202103）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费重点资助项目(2021SYIAEZD2) （2021SYIAEZD2）
