环境保护科学2024，Vol.50Issue(1)：148-154,7.DOI:10.16803/j.cnki.issn.1004-6216.202211040
多情景下中型航空公司碳排放预测研究
A study of carbon emission predications for medium-sized airlines under multiple scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Under the backdrop of international and domestic carbon reduction,this article selects a medium-sized airline in China as the research object.Firstly,it uses the ICAO carbon emission calculation method to calculate and analyze the carbon emissions from 2015 to 2019 based on two stages of flight progress(LTO and CCD stages).Then,through setting up four civil aviation development scenarios of no carbon reduction,basic carbon reduction,rapid carbon reduction,and ideal carbon reduction,it uses the Monte Carlo simulation method based on Python language to simulate the carbon emissions of the airline from 2022 to 2035 based on 2021 as the benchmark.The results show that due to the development needs of medium-sized airlines,it is impossible to achieve peak carbon emissions in all four scenarios,but the carbon emissions per 10,000 flights have been significantly reduced,indicating the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction measures.Finally,from the perspectives of domestic and foreign theoretical research and practical applications,this article proposes multiple low-carbon development suggestions for medium-sized airlines to help China's civil aviation industry achieve the important goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as soon as possible.关键词
航空公司排放/起飞着陆循环/多情景分析/蒙特卡洛模拟/碳达峰Key words
airline emissions/takeoff and landing cycle/multi-scenario analysis/Monte Carlo simulation/carbon peaking分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
罗凤娥,杨思瀚,甘琦,舒傲霜,张鑫..多情景下中型航空公司碳排放预测研究[J].环境保护科学,2024,50(1):148-154,7.基金项目
中国民用航空局科技项目(0252108) （0252108）
