大气科学学报2023，Vol.46Issue(6)：825-836,12.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20230812011
人工智能在飞机颠簸预报中的应用进展及未来趋势展望
Progress and future trend of artificial intelligence application in aircraft turbulence prediction
摘要
Abstract
Aircraft turbulence poses great danger to safe aircraft operation and affects the comfort of passengers.Therefore,improving the accuracy of aircraft turbulence forecast is of great significance to reducing injury and property loss,and for many years has been the focus of aviation meteorological research.With the enrichment of observation means and progress of science and technology,great progress has been made in the prediction of air-craft turbulence.In this paper,the main methods of aircraft turbulence prediction used throughout the world,espe-cially the latest application of artificial intelligence(AI),are reviewed from the perspectives of both qualitative and quantitative forecast.Then,on this basis,the main problems present in the application of AI to aircraft turbu-lence prediction and key research directions in the future are summarized as follows:(1)open sharing of aircraft real data,and integration and construction of multi-source turbulence data;(2)interpretability and physical mech-anism of aircraft turbulence prediction model built based on AI;and(3)ensemble forecasting of aircraft turbulence based on AI.Finally,the development ideas of the third generation of AI in the field of meteorology are proposed.The future third generation of AI in meteorology may be based on deep learning,integrating mathemati-cal logic reasoning algorithms,and based on"knowledge"(physical mechanisms,experience of forecasters,or basic principles of weather and climatology)and"data"(model data and observation data).That is,it may com-bine the advantages of the schools of connectionism and symbolism to carry out weather forecasting and climate prediction work.Of course,the third generation of meteorological AI must have characteristics such as higher pre-diction accuracy,self-learning,and self-adaptation(such as adapting to changes in the rule of meteorological data caused by climate change),and strong explanation in its mechanism.关键词
航空气象/飞机颠簸/第三代人工智能/概率预报/机器学习Key words
aviation meteorology/aircraft turbulence/third generation artificial intelligence/probabilistic forecast/machine learning引用本文复制引用
朱玉祥,刘海文,万文龙,姜晓飞,尕藏程林..人工智能在飞机颠簸预报中的应用进展及未来趋势展望[J].大气科学学报,2023,46(6):825-836,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会-中国民用航空局民航联合研究重点基金项目(U2033207) （U2033207）
中国气象局气象干部培训学院重点项目(2022CMATCZD10) （2022CMATCZD10）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J027) （CXFZ2023J027）
