大气科学学报2023，Vol.46Issue(6)：848-863,16.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20221203001
基于多源证据估算气候敏感度最新研究进展:IPCC AR6解读
Advances in the assessment of climate sensitivity based on multi-source evidence:interpreting IPCC AR6
摘要
Abstract
Based on the Chapter seven from the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)contributed by the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Working Group I(WGI),this study interprets the assessment of cli-mate sensitivity from multi-source evidence,including process understanding,instrumental records,paleoclimate data,and emergent constraints.The conclusion is that this evidence gives a combined best estimate of 3 ℃ to equi-librium climate sensitivity(ECS),with a likely range of 2.5-4.0 ℃ and a very likely range of 2.0-5.0 ℃.Meanwhile,for transient climate response(TCR)the best estimate is 1.8 ℃,with a likely range of 1.4-2.2 ℃and a very likely range of 1.2-2.4 ℃.Compared with previous IPCC reports,the most important innovations in AR6 regarding the estimation of climate sensitivity are that Earth climate system models were not considered as a line of evidence,and that the CMIP6 results were only given for comparison with the combined estimate from other evidence.The average ECS and TCR from CMIP6 were higher than those in CMIP5 and the best estimates in AR6,and the uncertainty range of ECS based on multi-source evidence was effectively narrowed compared with that based on CMIP6.关键词
AR6/CMIP6/平衡态气候敏感度/瞬态气候响应/多源证据Key words
AR6/CMIP6/equilibrium climate sensitivity/transient climate response/multi-source evidences引用本文复制引用
赵树云,袁畅,张华,周喜讯,刘梦婷,王海波,何静怡,于晓超..基于多源证据估算气候敏感度最新研究进展:IPCC AR6解读[J].大气科学学报,2023,46(6):848-863,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603502) （2017YFA0603502）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42275039) （42275039）
