大气科学学报2023，Vol.46Issue(6)：917-927,11.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20210318001
华东地区地面和高空风场的多模式集成精细化预报研究
Multimodel ensemble forecasts of high-resolution surface and high-level wind forecasts over East China
摘要
Abstract
This study focuses on the generation of high-resolution wind forecasts over East China and its sur-rounding regions(110°—130°E,20°—40°N)for the period from January to April 2020,utilizing wind forcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the Mesoscale component of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES-Meso),the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),and the Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES-GFS).Various interpolation techniques,including bilinear interpolation,inverse distance weighted interpolation,kriging interpolation,and cubic spline in-terpolation,were employed to create downscaling forecasts spanning from 0 to 72 hours.These high-resolution forecasts aim to cater to the specific needs of airports and their terminal areas.Furthermore,this study encompasses multimodel ensemble forecasts of high-resolution wind fields.The results reveal that inverse-distance weighted in-terpolation outperforms other interpolation schemes for horizontal wind forecast interpolation.Leveraging the aug-mented complex extended Kalman Filter(ACEKF)for multimodel ensemble forecasts substantially reduces root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)in wind field predictions.Notably,whether concerning surface winds or high-level winds,the ACEKF forecasts exhibit significant superiority compared bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM)forecasts and individual models,as evidenced by lower RMSEs.Examining wind forecasts at three prominent air-ports in East China-Shanghai,Qingdao,and Xiamen-reveals that ACEKF forecasts not only feature reduced RMSEs compared to BREM,ECMWF,and GRAPES-GFS forecasts but also display consistent performance across varying altitudes.This heightened forecast stability distinguishes ACEKF forecasts from BREM and individ-ual model forecasts.关键词
插值/风场预报/扩展复卡尔曼滤波/高分辨率/多模式集成Key words
interpolation/wind forecast/augmented complex extended Kalman Filter/high-resolution/multimodel ensemble引用本文复制引用
智协飞,吴柏莹,罗忠红,曹晴..华东地区地面和高空风场的多模式集成精细化预报研究[J].大气科学学报,2023,46(6):917-927,11.基金项目
中国民用航空华东地区管理局研发项目"华东地区机场及终端区风场预报预警系统研究" （）
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91937301) （91937301）
