基于CA-Markov模型的黄河下游土地利用时空演变及趋势预测OA

The change of land use pattern in the lower reaches of the Yellow River will affect China's food security and the high-quality development of ecological environment in the Yellow River basin.Based on the land use data of the lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020,the land dynamic attitude model,land transfer matrix and cellular automata-Markov model(CA-Markov)were used to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and future change trend of land use in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The results show that:from 2000 to 2020,the area of cultivated land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River decreased by 2 420 km2,with a decline rate of-2.24% ;the area of unused land and grassland decreased by 521 km2 and 701 km2,respectively,while the area of construction land increased by 3 167 km2,with a growth rate of 14.72% ;the land transfer fluctuates greatly from 2005 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2015,and the construction land is mainly trans-ferred from cultivated land,unused land and water area,among which the cultivated land transfer area is the largest,which is 2 637 km2;the Kappa coefficient simulated by CA-Markov model is more than 0.9,and the simulation accuracy is high.It is pre-dicted that by 2030,the cultivated land area in the lower reaches of the Yellow River will further decrease by 1 635 km2,while the construction land area will increase by 1 950 km2.Therefore,strengthening the efficient use of land resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River,optimizing the land use structure and formulating reasonable land use policies are effective means to ensure the ecological security and sustainable development of the ecological economy in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.